Euromoney 杂志， 2006年5月，原文作者 Chris Leahy
标题： 高收益债券：无林也无木
重点： 投资于中国的林业公司购地未达标
至今曼图林业融资（Mandra Forestry Finance, MFF）在中国的树上还没长出什么钱来。摩根士丹利替新公司MFF发行的高收益债券的承购者们躁动不安。该项1.95亿美元的高收益债券于2005年5月按面值发行，现在每张债券只值面值的85%。
标准普尔的信用分析师Mary Ellen Olson认为，债券贬值的原因是曼图在中国安徽未能如期收购林地，导致曼图落后于其原商业计划9个月。这使得标准普尔在3月份对它原本评给曼图的B级信用发出负面展望。
Mary Ellen Olson 说：“很明显，我们担心他们的还债能力。他们在第一个付息日前的6个月将会感到压力。那时我们将进行更详细的审查。”
第一次从非代管帐户中付息将是在2007年5月15日。届时，该公司的业绩还必须符合一定的原定计划，包括最低收购面积140000公顷。根据标准普尔，截至3月31日， 曼图只收购了17231公顷。标准普尔现在怀疑曼图的现金流是否会增加到足以支付利息。
Olson说：“我们已经直接问询曼图管理层，问他们有否违反任何原定计划。他们的答案是'否'”。
MFF是曼图林业控股（MFH）的融资部门。 MFH由张颂义设立。张是一位中国企业家，曾是摩根士丹利的一个主任经理。张现仍是摩根士丹利香港分部的一个咨询经理。他控制MFH的75％。
MFH融资费用：摩根士丹利占10％的MFF股权。 它是MFH唯一的融资代表，以此收取融资额3％的手续费，另加1000万美元的金融服务费。后者以MFF10％的股份支付。摩根士丹利没有投资于发行的债券。
根据标准普尔，张先前与安徽省的政府单位协议谈判收购林业资产。投资者都为收购未达标而感到困惑，尤其是考虑到张的关系网。
一位对冲基金经理评论道：“百分之九十以上的购买林权的协议落空了。没有人会期望百分之一百的成功。50％的失败率我还会有所准备，但完全落空也太离谱了”。
MFH归咎于先前由嘉汉林业（Sino-Forest）委任的管理人员。他们如今已被替换。在一次内部审计后，大多数签署的购地初步合约被取消。张说，在新的管理层掌控下，该公司通过另一地方政府的紧密配合，已购得超过50000公顷的土地。 他仍然有信心。他说：“我们严格按照与投资者的原定计划进行收购。 我对如期达成目标文件中制定的140000公顷的收购任务有信心。我会尽快达标。”
为消除投资者的疑惑，该公司和摩根士丹利最近举行了一次实地考察。现在他们声称，投资者对新的业务计划下的进展感到满意。但是，并非所有投资者都感到满意。参与考察的一家机构投资者声称：“不错，他们在收购。但他们没有提供关于林地质量的资料，还拒绝让投资者任命我们自己的独立估值者。”
“这是不正确的”，张说，“我们购入的林地必须满足债券文件中指定的严格标准。独立顾问jaakko poyry咨询公司已证实，购入的林地都满足这些标准。”
政府支持：张说政府支持完全是由经济上的考虑驱动。他强烈驳斥任何有关不法行为的指控。 “主要官员都表示支持，”他说，“如果当地农民不支持，我们也没有兴趣在哪里购地。这些地方都很广阔。如果农民选择阻止你种植，你就无能为力。”
张坚持认为，所有投资者将收回债券全部利息和本金，虽然他也承认，拖延将影响MFH公司的股权价值，也许损失会高达30％。而这会减少投资者的整体回报，因为发行时债券还附带MFH公司的认股权。
在此期间，投资者可以除了发牢骚，没什么别的选择。曼图的债券交易量极小，很难找一个市场价格。尽管曼图公司可能实现承诺，它与投资者的摩擦表明，这类复杂脆弱的新公司融资交易更适合私募市场。摩根士丹利的一个竞争对手似乎是这么认为。一家美国的银行的债务部门主管说：“最近的一些摩根士丹利[高收益债券]交易很大胆。这类交易，我们会用结构性贷款来做，而且我们银行承担一部分贷款。” 摩根士丹利做了大量工作推动亚洲高收益债券发行。曼图融资的交易，擦边球似乎打得很薄。
摩根士丹利官员拒绝发表评论。
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Euromoney
May 2006
High-yield debt: Missing the wood and the trees
BYLINE: Chris Leahy
SECTION: DEBT
LENGTH: 842 words
HIGHLIGHT: China-focused forestry company falls behind in land acquisition.
There's little money, yet, growing on MFF's trees in China Investors in a Morgan Stanley-sponsored high-yield issue for start-up Mandra Forestry Finance (MFF) are restive. A $195 million issue of high-yield notes in May 2005 at par has slid to 85c on the dollar since issue last May.
Behind the drop is the delay in the acquisition of plantation lands in China's Anhui province that has set back the company's business plan by some nine months, according to Standard and Poor's credit analyst Mary Ellen Olson, prompting S&P in March to issue a negative outlook on its initial B rating.
"We're obviously concerned about their ability to repay the bonds," says Olson. "They'll start to feel the heat about six months before the first [interest] payment and we'll be taking a much closer look at them then."
The first interest payment on the notes not covered by an escrow account is due on May 15 2007, at which point the company must also meet certain covenants, including minimum acquired acreage of 140,000 hectares. According to S&P, as at March 31, Mandra had acquired just 17,231 hectares. S&P is now doubtful whether MFF's cashflow can increase enough to make interest payments.
"We've asked management directly if they're in violation of any covenants," says Olson, "their answer was 'no'."
MFF is the financing arm of Mandra Forestry Holdings (MFH) a company established by Zhang Song-yi, a Chinese entrepreneur and formerly a managing director of Morgan Stanley. Zhang remains an advisory director of Morgan Stanley, Hong Kong. He controls 75% of MFH.
Fees
Morgan Stanley owns the remaining 10% of MFF and was the sole sponsor, earning a 3% fund-raising fee and a corporate finance fee of $10 million. The latter fee was exchanged for a 10% stake in MFF. Morgan Stanley did not invest in the notes.
According to S&P, Zhang negotiated the acquisition of forestry assets with government in Anhui province, China. Investors are puzzled by the failure to meet acquisition targets, particularly given Zhang's relationships.
"More than 90% of commitments to purchase forestry rights have failed," says a hedge fund manager. "No one expects 100% success, I'd be prepared for 50%, but not wholesale failure."
MFH blames initial management appointed by Sino-Forest, which has now been replaced. Following an internal audit, most signed preliminary contracts for land were cancelled. Zhang says the company has acquired more than 50,000 hectares of land in the two months since new management took over and started to work closely with another local government. He remains confident. "We're trading strictly within our covenants," he says, "and I'm very comfortable with the 140,000 target outlined in the document. I'd like to get to that as soon as possible."
Sensitive to investor concerns, the company and Morgan Stanley recently held a site visit. Now they claim investors are comfortable with progress made on the new business plan. But not all are satisfied. "They've been making acquisitions, that's good," says one institution that attended the presentation, "but there's been no information on the quality of the land and they refused to allow investors to appoint our own independent assessor."
That is not true, Zhang says. "The plantations we're buying have to meet strict criteria in the bond documents," he says. "Independent consultant Jaakko Poyry Consulting has confirmed they are all within those parameters."
Supportive
Zhang says the government's incentive is driven solely by economic considerations. He vehemently rebuts any suggestion of wrongdoing. "The key officials are all supportive,” he says, "and we have no interest in taking over land where the farmers are not supportive. These are vast areas. If farmers choose to stop you planting, there's not much you can do."
Zhang insists that all investors will remain whole on interest and principal, although he admits that the delays will affect MFH's equity value, perhaps by as much as 30%. That in turn will reduce investors' overall return, since the notes were issued with warrants in MFH.
Meantime, there is little investors can do but grumble. The notes hardly trade and finding a price is difficult.
Although the company might yet make good on its promise, the difficulties with investors suggest that such an intricate start-up transaction is better suited to the private market. One competitor seems to think so. "Some of the recent Morgan Stanley [high-yield] deals have been bold," says the debt head of one US bank. "It's the type of deal that we'd have done as a structured loan and we usually participate as a lender."
Morgan Stanley has done much to push Asian high-yield debt. The Mandra deal seems to sit at the very edge of its envelope.
Morgan Stanley officials declined to comment.
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